Economic cycle indicators reported in mid-September

With industrial production in August below the consensus (m / m -0.2% versus 0.1% Bloomberg), we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER business cycle dating committee.

Figure 1: Non-agricultural wage employment (dark blue), civil employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch. 2012 $ (green), manufacturing and commercial sales in Ch. 2012 $ (black), consumption in Ch.2012 $ (black), consumption in Ch.2012 $ (green). 2012 $ (blue) and monthly GDP in Ch. 2012 $ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all logs normalized to 2021M11 = 0. Lilac shading indicates dates associated with a hypothetical H1 recession. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (version 9/1/2022) and author’s calculations.

GDP and other indicators appear to vary; however, if we look at the large-scale retail trade, they seem more consistent.

Figure 2: Non-agricultural wage employment (dark blue), civil employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch. 2012 $ (green), manufacturing and commercial sales in Ch. 2012 $ (black), consumption in Ch.2012 $ (black), consumption in Ch.2012 $ (green). 2012 $ (blue) and monthly GDP in Ch. 2012 $ (pink), Gross domestic production, GDO (blue bars), all logs normalized to 2021M11 = 0. Lilac shading indicates dates associated with a hypothetical H1 recession. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (version 9/1/2022) and author’s calculations.

For more discussions on GDP versus GDO and other related measures, see this post from the beginning of the month.