New data has revealed that prostate cancer rates are expected to increase by a whopping 43% within the next 20 years, with 630,000 men facing double the average risk due to family history.
The number of men diagnosed is expected to increase from more than 240,000 today to 372,000 by 2040, according to the research.
More than 24,000 Australian men are likely to be diagnosed with prostate cancer this year and more than 3,500 are expected to die.
The alarming numbers have prompted the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia to demand greater awareness ahead of next month’s The Long Run campaign.
Foundation Chief Executive Anne Savage said prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia, but there has never been a publicly funded community awareness campaign targeting men at risk.
“These latest estimates suggest that up to 630,000 Australian males may face double the average risk of prostate cancer due to their family history of the disease,” he said.
“Essentially what we are facing is a wave of risk.
“It is essential to provide these men and their families with all the information they need to enable early diagnosis and prompt treatment.”
The figures were based on the number of Australian men diagnosed with prostate cancer over the past 40 years who could now have sons.
MNC Actuaries project team leader Joseph Chan said the data would help target men who faced higher risk.
“Our team came up with two different approaches to modeling and the results were surprisingly consistent. At first we didn’t think the final figure would be that high, “she said.
“We derived the estimate based on the evidence that men who have a father or sibling who has ever been diagnosed with prostate cancer have twice the average risk of developing the disease.
“Men who have been diagnosed with two or more close male relatives have a life-long risk of developing prostate cancer that is five times greater.”
However, the project did not differentiate risk levels.
“We calculated the estimate by approximating the number of sons born to men with prostate cancer, as well as the number of siblings they have, taking into account all men diagnosed with prostate cancer who are still alive or have died,” he said. said.
“For greater accuracy, the estimates also allow for a probable number of undiagnosed cases.”
The Long Run organizers hope to raise $ 1.7 million this year.
“We hope to bring people together to save lives,” Ms. Savage said.
Originally published as “Tidal Wave of Risk”: Research reveals a frightening warning for humans