- Rice production in India, China, Bangladesh and Vietnam is at risk
- Weather damage to rice crops comes amid near-record food prices
- Rice prices have fallen this year even as wheat and soy peaked
- African and Asian demand is increasing with the end of the harvest
SINGAPORE / MUMBAI – Adverse weather through Superior Rice Asian suppliers, including India’s largest exporter, are threatening to cut production of the world’s most important staple food and fuel food inflation which is already close to all-time highs.
Rice reversed the trend of increasing food pRices between abundant harvests and large stocks a exporters in the past two years, even as COVID-19, supply disruptions and, more recently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict have made other cereals more expensive.
But inclement weather in the exporting countries of Asia, which represents about 90% of the world Rice output, the p is likely to changeRice trajectory, traders and analysts said.
“There is upside potential for Rice pRices with the possibility of production downgrades in major exporting countries, ”said Phin Ziebell, agri-food economist at the National Australia Bank.
“An increase in Rice pRices would add to the already significant challenges to food accessibility in some parts of the developing world, “Ziebell told Reuters.
Irregular rains in India’s wheat belt, a heatwave in China, floods in Bangladesh and quality downgrades in Vietnam could hold back yields in four countries around the world Superior five Rice producers, farmers, traders and analysts told Reuters.
“Rice remained accessible also as overall food pRices hit record highs earlier this year, ”said United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization economist Shirley Mustafa.
“We are witnessing now weather-relative setbacks in some key Rice producing countries, including India, China and Bangladesh, which could result in lower production if conditions do not improve in the coming weeks, ”added Mustafa.
“The drop in production is certain”
of India Superior Rice Producing states of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh have experienced a monsoon rainfall deficit of up to 45% so far this season, according to state data. weather ward shows.
This partly led to a decline of 13%. Rice planting this year, which could result in a drop in production of 10 million tons or about 8% from last year, said BV Krishna Rao, president of All India Rice exporters Association.
The area below Rice Cultivation is also declining as some farmers have switched to legumes and oilseeds, Rao said.
The summer sowing of India Rice accounts for more than 85% of its annual production, which jumped to a record 129.66 million tons in the harvest year through June 2022.
“A drop in production is certain, but the big question is how the government will react,” a Mumbai-based retailer with a global the trading company said.
Milled and paddy Rice Stocks in India as of 1 July amounted to 55 million tons, against the target of 13.54 million tons.
Which he kept Rice pRices has declined in the past year along with India’s record shipment of 21.5 million tons in 2021, which was more than the total shipped by the next four largest in the world exporters—Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the United States.
“But the government is hypersensitive to Fr.Rices. A small increase could push it to impose limits on exports, “the trader said.
In Vietnam, rains during the harvest damaged the quality of the grain.
“Never before have I seen it rain so much during the harvest. It’s just abnormal, ”said Tran Cong Dang, a 50-year-old farmer based in Bac Lieu’s Mekong Delta province.
“In just ten days, the total measured rainfall is somewhat the same as the entire previous month,” said Dang, who estimated a 70 percent production loss on his 2-hectare paddy field due to flooding.
China, the largest in the world Rice Consumers and importers have suffered yield losses due to extreme heat in grain-growing areas and imports are expected to increase to a record 6 million tons in 2022/23, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
China imported 5.9 million tons a year ago.
The world’s third largest consumer, Bangladesh, should also import more Rice following flood damage in its main producing regions, traders said.
The full extent of the shortages in countries other than India has yet to be estimated by analysts or government agencies which often publish production figures only in the course of the year.
But the impact of the hostile harvest weather can already be seen in the slight increase in exports pRices from India and Thailand this week.
“Rice pRices are already close to the bottom and we see the market rise from current levels, “said a Singapore-based trader in one of the world’s largest markets Rice merchants.
“Demand is increasing with buyers like the Philippines and others in Africa looking to book loads.”